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As influential Democratic officials fall in line for Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden atop the ticket following his historic decision not to seek re-election this fall, a new Morning Consult survey shows most Democratic voters think she has the best chance of victory in November and are rallying to her cause.
Our new survey, conducted entirely after Biden’s July 21 announcement, shows the president’s decision to end his campaign and endorse Harris is popular with voters — and could lead to an enthusiasm boost among Democrats — as the majority of the electorate appears comfortable with him completing his term.
State of the race
Our July 21-22 survey found that 65% of Democratic voters support Harris to lead the party’s ticket, with none of the other nine names tested breaching 10% support. Harris’ backing in the latest survey is more than double the 30% support she had in a hypothetical look at the same question late last month, when 1 in 5 Democratic voters said they supported California Gov. Gavin Newsom to replace Biden as the party’s 2024 presidential nominee.
Harris’ standing on the replacement question — likely driven at least in part by her relative fame compared to the other potential contenders tested — comes alongside the confidence of 59% of Democratic voters that she has the best chance of beating former President Donald Trump in November.
Among the 10 names tested, Harris performs best against Trump, though he still leads, 47% to 45%. Harris’ standing is similar to that of a generic Democrat, while others — many of whom are already backing her bid — spark higher levels of uncertainty among voters, offering Democrats a bit of a blank slate as they mull a vice presidential running mate on a Harris-led ticket.
Given Harris’ name recognition advantage over others on the so-called Democratic bench of potential candidates, the most relevant current comparison in head-to-head showings against Trump is with regard to Biden.
Last week, we wrote that it wasn’t obvious that replacing Biden with Harris would provide much of a boost to Democrats’ chances in November, an assertion that was based on our July 15 survey that showed both Democrats running 1 percentage point behind Trump. But despite the fact that Trump remains the favorite, it’s now clear that Harris’ ascendance should increase the odds of a Democratic victory given the erosion in Biden’s position over the past several days.
Though Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 47% to 45%, in our survey conducted after Biden announced his decision to step aside, that’s an improvement on the 6-point margin Biden was staring down in our July 18-20 surveys conducted ahead of his exit from the race.
Harris looks more competitive against Trump than Biden among a number of key groups, and appears more capable of harnessing the political power of the anti-Trump coalition that has remained durable through the federal elections of 2018, 2020 and 2022. Along gender lines, she is stronger among both women and men. She also polls better among Democrats, who had been a consistent weakness for Biden, and runs ahead of Trump among independents.
Perhaps most importantly, she is more competitive among the groups that have broken hard from Biden since the 2020 election: 18- to 34-year-olds, as well as Black and Hispanic voters.
Harris leads Trump by 54 points among Black voters, compared with a 39-point advantage for Biden. Among Hispanic voters, her 8-point edge is twice that of Biden’s. And while the youngest voters favored Trump by 9 points against Biden over the weekend, Harris leads by 2 points among them.
If there is a concern for Harris’ case against Trump, it’s that her candidacy may ignite the GOP opposition more than Biden’s candidacy did. The Republican candidate runs stronger among Republicans and voters who backed him in 2020 when pitted against Harris.
To counteract any rising tide of negative partisanship on the right, Harris may need to run up the score even more with the moderate voters among whom she is already outperforming Biden.
On this front, we found in 2020 that Harris was perceived as less moderate than Biden, and our latest survey found 55% of voters say it’s important that Biden’s replacement be moderate, compared with 38% who said it’s important that they be liberal or conservative.
Given Trump’s efforts to moderate the GOP’s image — most recently on display via the party’s eschewing of ideologically maximal positions on hot-button cultural issues such as LGBTQ+ rights or abortion — Harris must convince voters that it is the Republicans who are extreme if she wants to revive the anti-Trump energy that's fueled Democratic campaigns since Trump took control of the political scene.
One in 4 Democratic voters said “worried” described how they feel about the contest “very well” following Biden’s announcement, down from roughly half in our weekly tracking survey conducted a week before that asked about the election more generally. Similarly, the share of Democrats who aligned closely with the “frustrated” descriptor declined from 40% to 17% compared with the prior week, alongside modest boosts in excitement and happiness.
When voters were asked directly about the impact of Biden’s decision on their motivation to involve themselves in politics this year, the data suggests the news could provide more of a boost for Democrats than for Republicans.
Democratic voters are more likely than Republicans (27% to 24%) to say they’re “much more motivated” to participate in the political process this election season, mirroring the gap between Biden’s and Trump’s respective 2020 supporters (26% to 23%).
Notably, Black voters are slightly more likely than white voters to say they’re now more motivated, a positive sign for Democrats among a key voting bloc, though they still have work to do when it comes to energizing the youngest members of the electorate who had appeared disenchanted by a Biden-Trump rematch.
What voters think of Biden’s decision to step aside
Politicians and political operatives across the ideological spectrum with a vested interest in preventing another Trump presidency responded to Biden’s decision to exit the race with outpourings of admiration, a sentiment that our survey suggests is largely reflected among voters nationwide.
Nearly 7 in 10 voters approved of Biden’s decision to step aside, including 77% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans. Roughly a third of GOP voters disapproved of his decision, more than any other group, indicating a sense of displeasure with a change in the race’s status quo that had looked favorable for Republicans for months, but especially so in the past three weeks.
It also likely reflects GOP voters’ receptiveness to messages from Republican leaders such as House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who responded to Biden’s decision by framing the events as an elite-driven coup that defies the will of American voters.
Critics of Biden’s decision to put his finger on the scales for Harris with an endorsement on Sunday appear to have a more substantial choir to preach to.
Though 51% of voters approve of Biden’s endorsement of Harris, 39% disapproved, including 65% of Republicans.
However, the Harris endorsement was generally well-received by the voter groups that Democrats have been concerned by in 2024 polling: Clear majorities of 18- to 34-year-olds and Black and Hispanic voters approved of it.
As Republicans continue to deride Democrats’ handling of the nomination process, it’s clear the electorate is going to require a lot of convincing on the GOP’s most maximalist demand — that Biden immediately resign from office.
Most voters (63%) say Biden should serve out the remainder of his term, compared with 30% who said he should resign now. Republicans were relatively divided on the question, with 50% saying Biden should quit now and 43% preferring to see him depart office in January.
Biden’s exit also appears to have prompted some soul-searching among at least a few GOP voters: 27% of Republicans said Trump should be replaced as GOP nominee, up 5 points from a week ago.
Though sentiment among most key groups was unchanged between the two surveys, we observed a sizable jump among Hispanic Americans, 57% of whom now say the GOP should oust Trump.
The bottom line
With Democratic officials rallying to Harris’ candidacy and voter donations surging in the immediate hours after Biden’s withdrawal, the sense of a vibe shift on the left is distinctly palpable.
Whether renewed energy in the Democratic base can decisively reshape the presidential race against Trump, who remains the favorite, will likely hinge on how Harris — who is less well- known than Biden — can reintroduce and market herself to a U.S. electorate that largely associates her with an unpopular presidential administration.
For Biden, his popular departure from the contest could help to secure his legacy as president — especially with backing from the bulk of the electorate for him to finish the job through Inauguration Day.
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